JTown Times Opinion: To understand the implications of Russia’s war on Ukraine we look to past geostrategic relationships and understand American weakness
Dialectic developments in the war in Ukraine, those unstoppable Communist forces of nature, present an interesting opportunity for nation states and other actors around the world who are traditionally anywhere from luke warm to hostile towards the US to realign with Moscow, the Kremlin.
A realigning of influential power with a Russian sphere of influence expanding from Syria to Iran to Ukraine may bring back the familiar for those of us who remember the Cold War.
Depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the perceived continuing dissolution of American exceptionalism, voices such as Arab and Islamic policy makers, from terrorists to states like Libya, may after the last two decades turn to Russia as it begins to reconstitute old Soviet glory.
Lybia, for example, was left in chaos in the power vacuum created by the 2011 American military campaign ordered by President Brack Obama that resulted in the death of strong man Muammar Gaddafi.
The dictator had shut down his weapons of mass destruction and nuclear programs in 2003 following the American invasion of Iraq ordered by President George W. bush.
The killing of Gaddafi and the Obama administration’s support of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the creator of modern day terror, in its ascent to power in Egypt through elections that brought President Mohamed Morsi to power following the ouster of dictator President Hosni Mubarak in a popular uprising, had ripple affects in the region.
Regional perceptions of the US changed and real politic consequences for Waahington’s policy execution and influence in the region would favor a Russian return to influence in the region.
Arab leaders saw an about face in American policy and an unknown future in which the United States may not be the dependable actor it had become during the Cold War, when Arab forces were armed by the Soviets. Both Mubarak and Gadaffi had been US allies in the Global War on Terror.
As certain leftist actors and voices in the West and western media adoringly and, arguably with the “bigotry of soft expectations,” hailed the Arab spring as a moment that would bring the Arab world in alignment with democratic norms and electoral representation.
The instant understanding by talking heads of the complexities of the Middle East seemed to describe a step towards the realization of some kind of Van Jones dialectic caliphate of the brotherhood of man.
Arab leaders took action to quell the uprisings and redesign internal power structures.
From Amman to Riyad to an Egypt controlled in 2022 by President General Sissi who ousted Morsi, changes were taking place with an opinion heard commonly by those listening to this part of the world, that America was changing, an unreliable partner and in decline.
Add to this President Obama’s lack of support for the 2009 Green Protest movement and American influence was in decline.
Policy makers and experts from Israeli government officials to Wall Street Journal reporter Jay Solomon said the motive was securing a nuclear arms deal with Iran.
As described in Solomon’s book “The Iran Wars” and as reported by Bloomberg in 2016, concerns for securing a nuclear arms deal with Iran motivated Obama’s policy.
As well, President Obama’s 2013″red line” for use of chemical weapons by Syrian President and dictator Bashar al-Assad. And the Middle East began to fear a day after tomorrow scenario in which the US was no longer the dependable force of nature it had been.
The deal, later achieved, was heavily criticized by Israel and Arab gulf states. President Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal in 2018 to praise from regional leaders from the Saudis to then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Green Movement failed in Iran and Assad used weapons of mass destruction to little American consequence for the dictator. The American “red line” was no line at all.
Assad remains in power after an eleven year civil war that began during the Arab Spring as a movement to oust the Syrian lader. He remains president largely thanks to Russian a military fighting his war.
The Russians are now staged in Syria and have transferred bombers and modern weaponry to it’s Khemiemim air base in the country, as reported by Tablet on March 2, 2022.
Now according to a March 16, 2022 report by the Times of Israel, up to 40,000 mercenaries and veterans of the 11-year-long war in Syria have signed up to fight in Ukraine at the behest of Moscow in exchange for pay. The fighters are said to include Syrian army veterans, militia fighters and Palestinians.
The Palestinian National Authority, the entity governing Palestinian areas of the West Bank, known as Judea and Samaria, but not Gaza which is governed by the illegal terrorist organization Hamas, had as of a March 9, 2022 Axiom report, not condemned the Russian war against Ukraine.
The Palestinians have historic ties with Russia dating back to the Soviet Union. Current PA President Mahmud Abbas, known as A u Mazen locally, received his doctorate from Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow.
There he wrote a thesis called The Connection between the Nazis and the Zionist Movement, in which he claimed the two groups partnered in the execution of the Holocaust.
Abbas is said to have been a KGB agent codenamed “mole” or “krotov” while living in Damascus, Syria.
A 2016 BBC report details Palestinian officials as saying that Abbas was not a secret agent and that the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the terrorist organization that is the parent of the Palestinian National Authority created by the Oslo Accords under President Bill Clinton, was affiliated closely with the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
At least at that point in time, the PLO argued, he would not need to be a Soviet agent to “liaise with it.”
With American foreign influence in decline regional actors and others around the world may see advantage in aligning or realigning with Moscow.
Iran is apparently aided in it’s aspirations for regional influence as it threatens to destroy Israel by a new Biden administration initiative for yet another nuclear deal.
All this as Iran moves towards regaining regional hegemony and a spheres of influence worthy of it’s empirical history.
Russia has good clients in Syria and Iran in arms sales and as the West tries to economically isolate Russia, possibly pushing it towards a nationalized economy and Return to a Communist financial system, it will still have partners around the globe from the Middle East to Latin America to sell arms and energy.
A weak US calling Putin a war criminal and leading efforts to stop Russia that are seen as deemed to fail in other parts of the world means Asian nations possibly aligning with China.
Slumbering forces in Latin America possibly hoping for a successful Russian outcome and remembering the days of counter and anti-Americanism and seeing American society at war with itself may also move closer to the Kremlin.
The prolific adoration of Che Guevara among circles of anti-capitalist American university youth who openly despise their own nation for what they describe as a history of systemic racist exploitation speaks volumes south of the Rio Grande.
There are likely hundreds of millions if not billions of committed Marxist-Leninists who see with the Russian war in Ukraine and Russian warnings to it’s neighbors as well as cooperation from Georgia and Belarus the possibility of a new dawn for their dream of a utopian era of the Communist Brotherhood of Man.
Anyone familiar with the Communist Manifesto knows that the committed Marxist-Leninist Communist believed and most likely still dies that the dialectic is eternal.
The revolution cannot be stopped. Capitalism will fail.
Combine all this with a US that has debt amounting to $30 trillion and a policy move to isolate Russia that may bring about Russian nationalization of it’s economy and a return to Communism and we can understand Soviet imperial strategy may be at play.
While American millennials have been cancelling their own national history they never truly learned, as taught to do by their teachers who were taught by 1960s Communist hippies who “stayed in school” and become tenured professors.
Others, from Israeli Jews to Latin American Marxists to Persians to Muslims and Chinese we’re learning and remembering the lessons of history.
Defector and former KGB agent Yuri Bezmenov describes in a 1984 interview how the Soviet intelligence services used such people for a multi-generational demoralization and destabilization campaign in the United States that began by taking over education. The effort, he said in 1984, was unstoppable.
University of Chicago Professor Alan Bloom had it right in his 1987 book, “The Closing if the American Mind.” Students went to university and learned how not to think.
The destruction of the ability to understand and critically analyze and ask questions would begin with the students, he said. And it did.
History in other parts of the world is taught. And what was was not 50 years ago or 300 or 3,000 years ago. It was yesterday. And yesterday all my troubles seemed so far away, as the song goes.
Well prepare yourselves for a return to yesterday and an end to leftist narrative control in the west. The American left may run it’s social warfare media and tech machine on racism.
Racism, though, is not a concern for most of the rest of the world. History is. And so is Russia and the dialectic.
The rest of the world remembers the Cold War. And the horrors of the evils of communism that murdered 10o million people. And America is currently seen by many as in decline as Russia spreads it’s wings.
Cold War, part two, has begun.
Greg Tepper has a BA in political science from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and has reported news in Israel and written for nearly 15 years.